Third Parties in U.S. Presidential Elections
Some Outcomes Might Have Been Different Based on Popular Votes
Third parties in American presidential elections generally addressed single issues that were of importance to sections of the voting public. In most cases, third and fourth parties never affected the outcome of elections, despite impressive numbers at the polls. There were, however, cases, where third parties most likely affected the results of the overall process.
When Third Parties Made a Difference
In 1844, James Birney’s Liberty Party opposed the annexation of Texas, fearing that its entry into the Union would add another slave state. Initially, Henry Clay, nominee of the Whig Party, also opposed Texas annexation. Before the election, however, Clay changed his position. Clay’s vote total was 38,367 less than Democrat James K. Polk. Birney received 62,000 popular votes. Historians speculate that some of Birney’s votes in key electoral states would have gone to Clay had he not changed his position on Texas.
The Election of 1848 was also close: Zach Taylor defeated Lewis Cass by 138,625 votes. Martin Van Buren, nominee of the newly formed Free Soil Party, received 291,263 votes. Because the Democrats supported the position of extending slavery to the West, scholars speculate that without the Free Soil Party, some of Van Buren’s votes might have gone to Cass. Free Soilers were Northern voters and Cass was a prominent Michigan politician.
Although the American Party or Know-Nothings received over 870,000 votes in 1856 (Millard Fillmore was the nominee), these votes would most likely not have helped the Republican candidate, John C. Fremont. Know-Nothings were prominent in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states and would most likely have voted for James Buchanan of Pennsylvania. The Republican Party was new and had only begun to build coalitions with the East, as would be seen in 1860.
Had the Democrats not split into three parties in 1860 and the number of cast votes been the same, the party would have polled 938,382 more votes than Abraham Lincoln. Lincoln was not even on Southern ballots.
Post Civil War Elections
Following Reconstruction, new issues began to dominate different sections. The Greenback Party favored soft money over hard currency; the Prohibitionists wanted to ban alcohol. In 1892 the Populists, addressing the concerns of farmers, received 10.4% of the popular vote. By the turn of the century, the Socialist Party under Eugene V. Debs was on presidential ballots, but, like the Prohibitionists, never affected the outcomes of 1904 and 1908.
The 1812 Election featured three prominent candidates. William Howard Taft was the incumbent, challenged by New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson. A divided Republican national convention, however, caused the supporters of Teddy Roosevelt to walk out and form a third party, the Progressive or Bull Moose Party. Roosevelt, a two-term president before Taft, was still highly popular.
The combined Taft and Roosevelt totals were 1.3 million over Wilson’s popular votes. In the “winner-take-all” Electoral College, Wilson secured 435 electoral votes. The split in Republican votes probably provided the margin Wilson needed, making him only the second Democrat since 1860 to occupy the White House.
Finally, in 1992, H. Ross Perot, a Texas billionaire whose third party candidacy revolved around balancing the federal budget, received a staggering 19,781,065 popular votes, despite dropping out of the race four months before the election. George Bush was separated from Bill Clinton by 5,805,911 popular votes. Historians speculate that Perot was the “spoiler.”
Importance of Third Parties
Third parties, historically, brought attention to important issues. After Ross Perot’s 1992 participation, Congress began the slow process of balancing the budget. The on-going candidacy of Ralph Nader focuses on environmental activism. The disputed 2000 election was decided in Florida, where Democrats in some districts claim that the layout of the punch-card ballots led them to vote for Nader rather than Al Gore. Nevertheless, third parties are healthy in a Democratic system.
Note:
Voting outcomes when discussing variables must always be tempered with such terms as “most likely” and “speculate,” because no scholar can truly know how anyone might have voted. Speculation is based on trends, issues, and possibilities based on political considerations.
Sources:
- Paul F. Boller, Jr. Presidential Campaigns From George Washington to George W. Bush (Oxford University Press, 2004)
- William A. DeGregorio, The Complete Book of U.S. Presidents From George Washington to George W. Bush (New York: Gramercy Books, 2001)
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